A new report warns that disruptions to fertilizer supply as a result of the war in Iran could prove more consequential for African countries than the fuel shock currently facing the continent and the world at large.
The report, published by the AU, African Development Bank (AfDB), and the UN, warns that disruptions to Gulf liquid natural gas (LNG) supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertilizer costs and constraining supply during the crucial March-to-May planting season.
“This would put further upward pressure on food prices and hit vulnerable households hardest, with significant negative impacts on food security in Africa,” it reads, noting that the Middle East accounts for 15.8 percent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 percent of its exports, while the Strait of Hormuz handles around 20 percent of global oil exports and nearly 90 percent of Persian Gulf oil exports.
It highlights that while the conflict is generating broad economic risks for Africa, a few countries may see short-term gains through higher commodity prices, trade diversion, and rerouted logistics.
Nigeria stands to benefit from higher oil prices and the export expansion of the Dangote Refinery, while Mozambique could gain from renewed momentum in LNG and increased traffic through the Port of Maputo. South Africa’s Durban port, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Mauritius are also benefiting from shipping rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, which is boosting port activity, bunkering, and maritime services.
In East Africa, Kenya is emerging as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi, while Ethiopia is benefiting from its role as the emergency air bridge linking Asia, Africa, and Europe through Ethiopian Airlines.
These gains, however, are likely to be uneven and may not offset the wider inflationary, fiscal, and food-security pressures affecting the continent, cautions the report.
It forecasts a 0.2 percentage point drop in GDP growth in Africa if the war continues for more than six months, noting that impact would vary across the continent based on levels of import dependency, exposure to the Middle East, and global market conditions.
“The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertilizer supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent. More broadly, the conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions,” it reads.
Experts foresee a wider Middle East conflict could intensify competition for influence in Africa, especially with the United States, Gulf states, China, Russia, Iran, and Türkiye.
“Regional conflicts in fragile contexts, such as Sudan, Somalia, and Libya, are already shaped by external sponsorship, arms flows, as well as rivalry over the control of ports, critical minerals, and Red Sea security. The crisis could also raise humanitarian delivery costs to Sudan and Somalia, worsening conditions in the Horn of Africa,” reads the report.
It warns that donor priorities may also move further toward military spending and crisis response closer to the conflict zone, adding pressure on already constrained humanitarian and development financing for Africa.
The report urges African governments to adapt policy responses and strengthen coordination mechanisms to rely more on regional coalitions to mobilize domestic resources and innovative finance.
“Policy responses should be sequenced across three horizons: immediate shock absorption, medium-term resilience support from development institutions, and long-term structural action by African governments and development partners. Early planning and fast response before fuel and financing shocks feed into inflation, debt distress, and social pressures will help to facilitate quick recovery and lower the costs to the economies,” it reads.
Strengthening energy security, rebuilding fiscal space, and accelerating adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) are also among the recommendations proposed in the report.
