{"id":49476,"date":"2026-02-28T10:28:33","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T07:28:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/?p=49476"},"modified":"2026-02-28T15:58:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T12:58:57","slug":"conflict-a-lion-without-teeth-and-a-four-year-coalition-parties-split-on-forecast-for-national-ballot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/49476\/","title":{"rendered":"Conflict, \u201cA Lion without Teeth,\u201d and a Four-year Coalition: Parties Split on Forecast for National Ballot"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With less than four months to go before the seventh national election, more than 40 political parties have endorsed a new Code of Conduct for Candidates approved by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE).<\/p>\n<p>On paper, the document promises a peaceful, lawful and disciplined campaign season.<\/p>\n<p>On the ground, opposition leaders warn that Ethiopia is facing \u201ca full-fledged war,\u201d a suffocating political space, economic strain, and an enforcement system that risks becoming \u201ca lion without teeth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Across parties, opposition leaders offered <em>The <\/em><em>Reporter <\/em>sharply different readings of the country\u2019s readiness for the polls. But they were united on one point: that the real test will not be the words in the code of conduct, but whether anyone dares to enforce them.<\/p>\n<p>For Mistresilasie Tamerat, secretary of the Ethiopian People\u2019s Revolutionary Party (EPRP), the starting point is clear.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRegarding peace and security, our party does not believe that what exists is merely a security problem. Rather, our party believes that there is a full-fledged war,\u201d she told <em>The Reporter<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Mistreselasie underlined the conflict in Amhara, the recent war in Tigray, nearly eight years of unrest and insecurity in Oromia, and heightened tensions and sporadic violence in places like Benishangul-Gumuz.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPeace is indispensable not only for elections but for any daily activity. Peace is the foundation of everything,\u201d she said, arguing that without peace, the conversation about elections is almost theoretical.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhether we talk about the economy, tourism, elections, or any other matter, nothing can function outside the framework of peace,\u201d she said. \u201cAs we have repeatedly stated, we do not believe that conditions are conducive for conducting elections in Ethiopia. This is not only in relation to peace or the issues I mentioned earlier, but also because the political space has become extremely narrow\u2014almost to the level of danger.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>EPRP is part of the \u201cCooperation for Ethiopian Unity,\u201d a coalition that includes the All Ethiopian Unity Party, the Enat Party, the Ethiopian Democratic Party, and the Agin Party.<\/p>\n<p>But even within a coalition preparing for electoral competition, Mistresilasie observes the political space is far from uninhibited.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s not just about political prisoners,\u201d she said. \u201cAs a party, we too, along with other genuine opposition parties such as those in our coalition, are facing significant pressure, intimidation, threats, and arrests.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>When asked how she assesses the rising cost of living, particularly in an election year Mistresilasie linked the economic situation directly to peace and security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs I said earlier, whenever we raise the issue of the economy, indeed any sector, it ultimately ties back to peace,\u201d she said. \u201cIn our view, unless the issue of peace is resolved, or unless people are able to live in peace, economic stability cannot be achieved.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She argued that no economic ideology can succeed in a context of sustained conflict.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhatever policy alternative one proposes, this is the reality. For example, a party that claims to follow social democracy cannot promise economic growth and justice while pursuing a path that perpetuates war in the country. That would be a false promise,\u201d said Mistresilasie.<\/p>\n<p>She underlines that peace and security must be addressed before economic recovery or price stabilization can take place.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSo regardless of ideology, for any economic policy to bring growth and improve the people\u2019s living conditions, the issue of peace and security must first be addressed as the primary prerequisite. To stabilize the cost of living, peace is needed first,\u201d said Mistresilasie.<\/p>\n<p>Beyond security, she raised concerns about what she described as externally influenced economic reforms threatening the country\u2019s sovereignty.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn particular, what members of the Prosperity Party refer to as \u2018economic reforms,\u2019 which we know are influenced by the IMF and the World Bank, are measures that have been lowering Ethiopians\u2019 living standards day by day,\u201d said the EPRP Secretary.<\/p>\n<p>She pointed to currency depreciation and inflation as key drivers of rising costs.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs the public knows, whenever the purchasing power of our currency, the Birr, is repeatedly reduced, inflation increases. This is a basic economic principle. One does not need to be an economist to understand this.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She linked this to economic sovereignty.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf a country fails to defend its economic sovereignty, economic stability cannot be expected\u2014and it will not come,\u201d said Mistresilasie. \u201cAs a social democratic party, we believe there must be fair wealth distribution. Basic necessities should be accessible to the public at reasonable prices, and some essential services should even be provided free of charge to all citizens without discrimination.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>However, she returned to her central argument arguing that to achieve this, \u201cthe country\u2019s economic sovereignty must first be protected; peace and security must be ensured; and wars must be stopped.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Alongside peace and security issues and economic uncertainties, analysts and experts raise questions about the feasibility of political coalitions. They ask whether long-established or emerging cooperation is tactical, and whether it can truly be effective in winning elections and forming a government.<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>In Ethiopia\u2019s electoral and government history, coalitions have come and gone. The 2005 Coalition for Unity and Democracy remains the benchmark of many references.<\/p>\n<p>This time, EPRP insists its alliance is not seasonal.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen we formed the Cooperation for Ethiopian Unity, it was not just for today or solely for the purpose of elections,\u201d Mistresilasie said. \u201cFor the past four years, we have assessed what conditions enable us to work together and what our shared stance is on national issues.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She rejects the idea that coalitions are simply arithmetic exercises.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPolitical organizations are composed of people. If the individuals within them are not harmonized or coordinated, it becomes difficult for parties to work together,\u201d said Mistresilasie.<\/p>\n<p>She argues that coalitions test ideological compatibility, leadership integration, and national outlook before formalizing.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt was not formed simply to win an election,\u201d she said. \u201cIf we enter the election fully, we are confident we will win. And when we do so, we will not remain merely as a coalition; we will move toward deeper integration.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Her criticism extends to past parliamentary outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat undermines the credibility of the House of People\u2019s Representatives is when the ruling party claims to have won almost ninety-nine percent or one hundred percent of the seats, especially when it is widely known that this was not the case,\u201d she said. \u201cClaims of ninety-nine or one hundred percent victories through improper processes damage the credibility of parliament.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Her focus, she says, is not symbolic opposition.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are working not merely to occupy a few parliamentary seats, but to form a government,\u201d she told <em>The Reporter<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Other political parties have a more positive view of the new code of conduct and overall preparations for the vote.<\/p>\n<p>Rahel Bafe (PhD), chair of the Ethiopian Social Democratic Party (ESDP), was among the political figures who took part in a one-day consultative discussion with election officials about the code before it was approved on Monday.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-49477\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33.jpg\" alt=\"| The Reporter | #1 Latest Ethiopian News Today\" width=\"1200\" height=\"630\" title=\"| The Reporter | #1 Latest Ethiopian News Today\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33-300x158.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33-686x360.jpg 686w, https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33-150x79.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33-768x403.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33-696x365.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/CONFLICT-A-LION-WITHOUT-TEETH33-1068x561.jpg 1068w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>She told <em>The Reporter <\/em>she was satisfied with the code, and impressed with the consultative process.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur discussion was not symbolic,\u201d said Rahel. \u201cOften, discussions tend to be symbolic\u2014ideas are not incorporated, and meetings are held merely for the camera while decisions have already been finalized behind the curtains ahead of the discussions. What I observed this time was different.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Describing the discussions as \u201cgenuine,\u201d she conceded that not everything was on the table, and cautioned that the real challenge lies in what comes next.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur main challenge as a country, however, is not discussion itself. The issues we discuss often do not reach the ground. We struggle with implementation,\u201d said Rahel. \u201cIf we can properly implement what has been agreed upon, despite its shortcomings, it would be a good beginning.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Pressed on what NEBE must do, Rahel did not soften her words.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Election Board must work diligently. It must also be independent from the government. It is not independent; certainly not,\u201d she said, noting that enforcement mechanisms still rely almost entirely on government structures whose imprartiality is cause for doubt.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs we move down to the constituency levels, the agreements reached are often not implemented. The Board is unable to operate freely or enforce decisions,\u201d Rahel told <em>The Reporter<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>She pointed to the justice system as an example of ruling-party influence.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMany appointees are either members or supporters of the Prosperity Party. Therefore, it cannot truly be independent. That influence exists,\u201d said Rahel.<\/p>\n<p>Still, she frames responsibility collectively. \u201cAs citizens, as competing political parties, and as a Board, we must all shoulder responsibility and assign the lion\u2019s share of accountability to the government.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>ESDP says it has registered more than 470 candidates in hard copy. But she notes problems already emerging: \u201cAmong those registered online, none has yet received confirmation messages.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The party will not field candidates in the Amhara, Tigray, Afar, or Gambella regional states, according to its Chairperson.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn Tigray, the party does not have members. In the Amhara region, its offices have been closed,\u201d Rahel told <em>The Reporter<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Other political figures, like Abdulqadir Adem (PhD), chair of the Freedom and Equality Party, also acknowledge the instability in the country, and argue that conducting elections under the current circumstances is akin to \u201cchoosing the lesser evil.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He told <em>The Reporter <\/em>that his party is participating in the vote with the understanding that problems may arise during candidate selection, campaigning, or \u201ceven in ensuring that voting is truly free.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are many challenges\u2014many problems,\u201d said Abdulqadir. \u201cAt the same time, if an election is not conducted in a country, it creates a situation where there is no government with acceptable legal legitimacy. That, in turn, creates a vacuum.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He raised concerns about the ruling party\u2019s reach, and warned against misuse of power.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe ruling party has vast capacity\u2014it can reach everywhere. It administers the government at woreda and zonal levels. It has financial resources. It can manipulate processes,\u201d said Abdulqadir.<\/p>\n<p>He fears citizens could be pressured \u201cthrough money or intimidation, like being told they could lose their jobs or be removed from safety net programs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Abdulqadir says his party sees participation as a duty, and called for voter rights to be respected.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNo government should remain in power for more than five years under any circumstances. Even if the situation is not perfect now, the culture must be preserved,\u201d he said. \u201cAmong many evils, we are choosing what we see as the lesser evil.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He described the new code of conduct as \u201ca positive step,\u201d and echoes others in his call for adequate enforcement.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYes, as a country we are very good at drafting laws. We do not have a problem with producing legislation,\u201d said Abdulqadir. \u201cBut if a law remains on the shelf, it has no meaning. It becomes like a lion without teeth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Genene Gedebu of the Kucha People\u2019s Democratic Party describes the Code as \u201cacceptable to all political parties.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf it is implemented properly on the ground, it is very good overall,\u201d he said, also circling back to enforcement. \u201cThe main issue that requires much needed attention is whether it will actually be implemented. We will judge it based on how it is implemented\u2014whether the Board clearly takes action against violators and corrects wrongdoing.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>From war zones to rising living costs, from coalition engineering to institutional independence, the opposition figures who spoke to <em>The Reporter<\/em> reveal a political class bracing for a difficult season.<\/p>\n<p>Across party lines, the code of conduct is seen as necessary, but doubts over enforcement and impartiality hang heavy. The question now is no longer whether a code has been signed. It is whether Ethiopia\u2019s institutions have the will and the teeth to enforce it convincingly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With less than four months to go before the seventh national election, more than 40 political parties have endorsed a new Code of Conduct for Candidates approved by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). On paper, the document promises a peaceful, lawful and disciplined campaign season. On the ground, opposition leaders warn that Ethiopia [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":49478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"editor_plus_copied_stylings":"{}","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2078,1957],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-49476","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-election-2026","8":"category-in-depth"},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49476\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thereporterethiopia.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}