Ethiopia is approaching a critical juncture. The country is not facing a single crisis, but a convergence of them – unrest, insecurity, food shortages, disease, and deepening economic strain. These are not isolated problems. They are feeding into each other, growing more complex and more severe by the day. If this trajectory continues unchecked, we risk reaching a tipping point where recovery becomes not just difficult, but uncertain.
At a time like this, the greatest mistake we can make is trying to do everything at once. Not all problems are equal. Some are foundational. Some are enabling. And some, if ignored, will make every other effort irrelevant.
Food Is Not Just a Sector, It Is the System
We often repeat that food, shelter, and clothing are basic human needs. But in Ethiopia today, food is not just one of many priorities it is the highest priority. It underpins stability, health, productivity, and even peace. When food systems fail, everything else follows: economic collapse, migration, conflict, and disease. Yet we continue to treat food as if it were someone else’s responsibility, something for farmers, or for the Ministry of Agriculture. That approach is no longer adequate for the challenges we face.
Food security must become a national agenda, owned by every sector, every institution, and every level of leadership. Until Ethiopia reaches a safe and stable threshold, nothing else should distract from this central task. This requires a shift not only in focus, but in how we approach agricultural transformation: more attention alone will not solve the problem. Poorly directed attention can be as damaging as neglect.
If Science Does Not Lead, We Will Keep Failing
Ethiopia does not suffer from a lack of effort. It suffers from a lack of alignment and direction. The country must shift decisively toward knowledge-driven, science-led agricultural transformation. This is not a technical preference; it is a necessity. Without it, we will continue to recycle the same approaches and expect different results.
I recently attended the annual research review of the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR). What I saw was encouraging: dedicated researchers, committed professionals, and real intellectual energy. The potential is there. But potential does not produce results on its own. Without a system that allows science to lead, that potential will remain unrealized. If we are serious about transformation, three priorities are non-negotiable.
Integration: Ethiopia’s agricultural system exhibits important gaps in coordination both across sectors and within the Ministry of Agriculture itself – from research and policy to implementation, utilization of scientific outputs, and extension.
These disconnects are not merely inefficient; they significantly limit impact. Research findings do not consistently reach farmers, policies are not always grounded in operational realities, and promising solutions struggle to scale. For instance, improved crop varieties and practices often remain confined to research stations rather than reaching widespread adoption at farm level.
Addressing this requires a shift toward systems thinking – where each stage, from conceptualization to delivery and use, is better connected, aligned, and oriented toward measurable impact.
Human Capital: Agriculture cannot be transformed with average capacity. It requires the best minds the country has to offer. Yet the sector often struggles to attract and retain top talent. This must change. Ethiopia must invest in building, attracting, and retaining highly capable, interdisciplinary professionals.
Critically, this includes repurposing and retraining talented individuals from other fields who may have no formal background in agriculture but possess strong analytical, technical, and problem-solving skills. There is a vast pool of underutilized talent across disciplines such as data science, engineering, economics, and environmental sciences that can be redirected toward agricultural transformation with the right training and orientation. This requires deliberate programs to transition and equip such professionals with applied agricultural knowledge, while leveraging their existing strengths.
Equally important is creating the right motivation and incentive structures – competitive compensation, clear career pathways, and a strong sense of national purpose – to attract and retain the country’s brightest minds. Without mobilizing and redirecting this breadth of talent, science cannot effectively lead agricultural transformation.
Funding: This is where rhetoric must end, and real commitment must begin. Agricultural research must become one of the most well-funded sectors in Ethiopia, not symbolically, but substantively. And not in fragments, but across the entire chain.
Funding must cover everything: from conceptualization and design to field implementation, validation, scaling, and ultimately delivery and use by farmers and policymakers. Laboratories, field trials, data systems, and extension services must be properly financed. Researchers must be competitively paid and supported.
Without this end-to-end investment, even the best ideas will die before they make an impact.
This Is Not Just Reform, It Is a Reset
The problem is not only technical; it is structural.
The human resource base of agriculture must change. A system dominated by outdated structures cannot deliver modern results. Ethiopia must actively bring in younger generations, educated farmers, and practically trained professionals, particularly through strengthened TVET systems that connect knowledge with real-world application.
Leadership must also evolve. It cannot remain trapped in routine administration while the system it oversees struggles. What is needed is leadership that thinks in systems, acts strategically, and focuses on long-term impact. This leadership must also be supported, not constrained, by independent, high-level thinking bodies composed of the country’s best minds, free from bureaucratic inertia.
Ethiopia’s future will not be decided in abstract debates or policy documents. It will be decided by the choices made now. We can continue to spread our attention thin, reacting to symptoms. Or we can confront the foundation of the problem and act decisively. If there is one area where failure is not an option, it is agriculture. Not just more attention, but focused, science-driven, system-wide transformation. Because if agriculture fails, the foundation of Ethiopia’s future is at risk.
Taddese Alemu Zerfu (PhD) is an Adjunct Associate Professor at the University of Gondar (UoG). He is also a Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Contributed by Taddese Alemu Zerfu (PhD)
