Policy analysis urges shift from reactive crisis response to long-term resilience planning
A policy analysis published this week by the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) warns that Ethiopia is undergoing a “multi-disruption stress test,” as overlapping economic, environmental and security challenges place mounting pressure on the country’s governance systems.
The study, authored by Amran Gamachu and titled “Ethiopia’s Multi-Disruption Test: From Crisis Response to Sequential Resilience,” argues that the country is increasingly confronted with simultaneous and interconnected shocks, rather than isolated crises.
It notes that current policy responses remain largely short-term and reactive, a model the report suggests is no longer sufficient given the scale and complexity of emerging risks.
“Managing one crisis at a time is no longer sufficient,” the analysis states, emphasizing the need for an integrated and forward-looking strategy.
The report comes as Ethiopia continues to implement wide-ranging macroeconomic reforms, including exchange rate adjustments and fiscal measures aimed at stabilizing the economy and improving external balances.
While these reforms are intended to support long-term growth, the analysis cautions that they may also generate short-term economic strain, particularly for vulnerable households facing rising living costs. The study highlights the growing importance of external financial flows, noting that personal remittances accounted for 4.8 percent of GDP in 2024, according to World Bank data.
Beyond economic pressures, the report identifies climate variability and localized insecurity as critical factors intensifying the country’s vulnerability. Erratic rainfall, drought conditions and internal displacement are placing additional demands on public institutions and humanitarian systems, which the study suggests are already operating under strain.
Central to the analysis is the concept of “sequential resilience,” a governance framework designed to help institutions absorb and respond to multiple shocks over time.
The report recommends strengthening coordination across government institutions, empowering regional and local administrations, and aligning humanitarian and development responses.
It warns that failure to adopt this approach could leave the country trapped in a cycle of repeated crisis management, with each disruption undermining progress made in response to previous shocks.
“Ethiopia must move beyond addressing individual crises and prepare its institutions to manage overlapping disruptions effectively,” the report concludes.
